OVERVIEW

The Optimizer user interface consists of a series of tabbed screens that allow you to easily navigate through the program and implement its procedures.

SEARCHING FOR STRUCTURE:
The pro basketball Optimizer searches for patterns in basketball data. You specify a situation, namely, a specification of factor values that identifies a set of games. Then you "get stats." In database terms, this is a query. The Optimizer quickly finds the games for the specified situation, displaying win-loss percentages, both straight up and versus the point spread, over-under percentages, and "z-values," statistics that measure the strengths of win-loss and over-under percentages. You can also do a random search, in which the Optimizer randomly searches for strong patterns, saving the best for later analysis. Or you can find optimal situations relative to point spread or over-under percentages.

SPECIFY FACTOR VALUES:
Start on the "get stats" tabbed screen. Click desired boxes to select values for specified factors. Leaving a box blank causes the Optimizer to ignore that factor. The home team (HOME) is selected as a default for "team," regular season games (REG) are selected as a default for "type", and the years "1997-2001" are selected as a default for the "year range." Factors include team, opponent, year range, spread range, over-under range, results of selected team's and opponent's last game and 2 games back. To select factors for the previous game or 2 games back, click the appropriate tabs.

Note: "year" denotes the first year of the season. For example, "1997" denotes the 1997-98 season.

OPTIMIZE:
An "optimize" check box is beside each eligible factor value box (not all factors can be optimized). Clicking on an optimize box or boxes selects "optimize" for the associated factor. When you "get stats", the Optimizer then finds the strongest point spread record or the strongest over-under record for the optimized factor(s), expressed by z-value. You can optimize some factors and specify values for others. The Optimizer then finds optimal values for the optimized factors for situations in which the specified values are in effect.

To unselect an optimized factor, re-click the selected optimize box.

Note: Do to the numerous combinations that must be compared in an optimization procedure, optimizing more than two factors at a time can slow search time.

GET STATS:
When you are finished selecting factor values or optimize boxes, click on the "get stats" command button at the bottom of the get stats tabbed screen. The Optimizer then finds and lists games that satisfy the specified conditions and displays an array of statistics for those games. If "optimize" has been selected, the Optimizer displays the optimal situation for the appropriate factor(s) in the context of the other specified values. The best z-value (largest in the display) may be for home, away, or all games and is highlighted in red. When the Optimizer concludes a search, it displays the selected situation in the "situation" frame at the top of the screen. When you've finished this procedure, click "reset" and do it again.

LIST OF GAMES:
In addition to win-loss statistics and over-under statistics, the Optimizer also displays a list of the games that satisfy the specified conditions, including dates, scores, point spreads, and over-under lines. To see the list of games for a particular situation, click on the "list of games" tab. Important: Current season games will not show up on list of games unless point spread has been entered.

AVERAGES:
Average points per game for the selected team and opponent in a given situation, along with average point differences and totals for that situation, are displayed below the list of games on the "list of games" tabbed screen.

OPTIMIZE CRITERIA:
When searching for optimal values, the Optimizer considers both point spread ("vs spr") and over-under ("ou") records. Within these categories, "total," "home," and "visitor" records are examined (the selected team's games at home, on the road, and total for both vs spr and ou). The default for finding optimal values is "all," in which case the Optimizer finds the best record, measured by z-value, over all categories (see explanation of z-values). If you are looking only for point spread angles, go to the edit menu at the top of the screen, select "set optimize criterion," and choose "vs spr." If you are looking only for over-under angles, choose "ou" as your optimize criterion. Note: The "optimize criterion" only applies to searches for optimal strategies and to random searches, in which the Optimizer looks for the "best" situation.

RANDOM SEARCH:
Suppose you want the computer to search for good situations, unhampered by your preconceived notions. When you click random search, the Optimizer repeatedly searches through the database, looking for strong situations, saving the strongest for you to study later. You can leave a random search running as long as you like. In addition to saving good situations in the situations database, at the end of a random search, the strongest situation is displayed on the screen. The random search routine is set to automatically save all situations with z-values higher than or equal to 3. If you want "random search" to automatically save only situations with z-values higher than or equal to 2.5 or to save only situations with z-values higher than or equal to 3.5, click the Edit menu at the top of the screen, click "Set random search z-value" and make the appropriate selection.

When you use random search you can also specify factor values. In this case, the Optimizer randomly searches through factors other than the ones you've selected. If you leave all factor settings blank, "random search" finds strong situations for the home team over the entire database from 1997 to the current year. Random searches don't alter the team setting, so, for example, if you select Golden State as team, the entire search will be for Golden State situations. If you leave the team setting blank, the Optimizer will search for good situations for the home team.

A check box located at the bottom of factor settings pages allows you to disable random searches for those pages. For example, if you don't want random searches to include factors describing the opponent's results for two games back, click the check box at the bottom of the "two back opp" page so that it is unchecked and reads "random off." If you also don't want random searches to include factors for the selected team's results two games back, click the check box at the bottom of the "two back team" page. To restore these factors for random searches, simply click the boxes again and "random on" will appear.

SAVING A GOOD SITUATION:
The Optimizer allows you to maintain a database of good situations that you can use for future reference. If you uncover a good situation in the course of a search on the "get stats" tabbed screen, you can save the situation by clicking the "save situation" button at the bottom of the screen. You can only save situations in which the z-value is 2 or larger (see discussion of z-values).

RETRIEVING GOOD SITUATIONS:
To gain access to the situations database, click the "situations database" tab. To retrieve a saved situation for possible application to current games, use the scroll bar to scroll through the situations database. When you retrieve a saved situation, it is displayed in the "situation" frame at the top of the screen. Saved situations are displayed with all the relevant stats. To see a list of games and average points for a saved situation, click on the "list of games" tab.

A counter in the "save and retrieve situations" frame displays the number of saved situations. If you have a large number of saved situations, you may wish to select a team. Then, you scroll through only the saved situations for the selected team. To scroll through all saved situations, leave the team selection box blank. Saved situations are ordered by z-value.

To delete a saved situation from the situations database, click the "delete situation" button.

FIND ALL SAVED SITUATIONS THAT APPLY TO A PARTICULAR GAME:
Click "situations for a game" tab. When tabbed screen appears, enter date range and click "get games." All games played in selected date range will appear in grid. (Grid will remain blank if no games were played in selected date range.) Click on any game in the grid and a list of situation numbers for all saved situations that apply to this game will appear in the "game situations list" to the right of the grid. (List will remain blank if no saved situations apply to the selected game.) Important: Current season games will not show up on games list unless point spread has been entered.

Situation numbers correspond to the list of all saved situations ranked by z-value (highest z-value is #1). Relative to this ranking, the lower the situation number, the better the situation. To see a description and stats for a particular situation, click on the situation number. To see a list of games and average points for this situation, click on the "list of games" tab.

PRINT RESULTS:
To print the results of an Optimizer search, click the File menu at the top of the page and then click "print search results."

GAMES DATABASE:
The Optimizer database contains all pro basketball regular and post-season games from 1997 to the present, along with the schedule for the current season. The user-friendly "update" function makes it easy to update the database throughout the current season.

UPDATING THE GAMES DATABASE:
To update or modify games for the current season, click on the Tools menu at the top of the page and then click "Update database." When you are on the update data page, specify a month if you desire, and then, from the list of games, click on the game you wish to update. You then add or modify values in the appropriate boxes in the "update data" box.

When you are finished updating a game, you can select another game and repeat the procedure. When you are finished your current updating session, click on the File menu at the top of the page and click "Return to stats page" to return to the stats page, or, to exit the program, click "Exit." The Optimizer will automatically update the database. You can change incorrect values, enter partial information, and update data as often as you like.

The current season schedule is already entered. You cannot modify dates or teams.

EXITING THE OPTIMIZER:
To end your Optimizer session, click the File menu at the top of the page and then click "Exit."